4 the House of Representatives Has the Special Power to
Last November revealed the capstone of misrepresentation in American democracy when Hillary Clinton won the pop vote by ii.9 million votes but lost in the Electoral Higher.
But what well-nigh the U.S. Congress? How representative of the American people is the House of Representatives? My Brookings colleague Molly Reynolds finds the Republican Party's current "seat bonus"—a college percent of seats than of votes—aligns with the historic advantage for any bulk party in the House over the concluding 70 years, dorsum to 1946.
This post focuses on how representative the new 115th Congress is on a state-past-state level.
Majority political party over-represented
Despite its proper name, the House of Representatives is non so representative.
As the chart beneath shows, the total vote differential between the 2 parties for elections to the Firm in 2022 was i.2 percent. Only the deviation in the number of seats is 10.viii percent, giving a total of 21 extra seats to Republicans.
Figure i: National Distribution of Votes for Congress
| NUMBER | Percentage | |||
| Party | Republican | Democrat | Republican | Democrat |
| Votes | 63,164,365 | 61,750,858 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Seats | 241 | 194 | 55.4% | 44.half dozen% |
| "Misrepresented Seats" | 21 | -21 | 4.8% | -4.eight |
Over-representation past state
This aggregate over-representation of the bulk party is considerably extreme when looked at state-past-state. In cerise states (meet Effigy 2), Republicans garnered 56 percent of the vote simply 74.vi percent of representation. In blue states, Democrats won 60.iii percent of the vote but 69.1 percent of representation.
Well-nigh all states are "true"—"truthful red states" have a Republican bulk of votes and representation; "truthful blue states" have a Democratic majority of votes and representation. Two states are "flipped blueish states;"in Virginia and Wisconsin Republicans received a majority of seats despite Democrats winning a bulk of the votes for Congress.
Misrepresentation is considerably larger within each red and bluish grouping than in the U.S. as a whole. Translated into seats in the Firm, Democrats over-stand for blue states (excluding the two flipped states) past xix seats, whereas Republicans over-represent true red and flipped blue states by xl seats. Republicans over-represent cerise states (true and flipped) past 16 percent points, while in united blue states the disparity is 11 per centum points.
Figure 2: Majority Political party Wins Disproportionate Representation
Misrepresentation in minor and large states
For individual states, misrepresentation is even larger. The level of misrepresentation is 20 percent or greater in 23 states—almost half the country—and over 30 percent in 12 states.
To a certain extent, misrepresentation is partly a function of country size. In small states with a single member—Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming—in that location is no alternative to the votes of a portion of the citizens not being represented. In these states, on average, 37 percent of voters selected the losing party. Even states with two representatives—New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maine, and Idaho—accept a large caste of misrepresentation, on average 28 percent. This is not surprising in a winner-accept-all organisation. Overall, the misrepresentation from these small-scale states cancels out in the aggregate—in the 17 seats of these states there is only a iii per centum betoken disparity betwixt the distribution of votes and the distribution of seats.
On the other extreme are the four largest states—New York, Florida, Texas, and California. Together, these states send 143 representatives to Congress. Each has less than 10 pct misrepresentation—votes from the losing political party in one district are compensated in other districts. Moreover, the overall distribution from these states is the storybook moving picture of democracy at work: Between them, the distribution of votes and seats was equal, with less than 1 pct divergence between votes and representation (45 percent for Republicans, 55 for Democrats).
Figure three: Misrepresentation in Small and Large States 2016
Note: The level of misrepresentation is computed as the difference between percent of votes and percentage of seats.
Misrepresentation in midsized states
That leaves the 34 midsized states, with 275 seats among them, to account for the observed misrepresentation. Figure 4 plots the number of seats from each state against the level of misrepresentation. Big and small states are gray; midsized states are ruby-red. In general at that place is an changed correlation between the number of representatives from a state and the level of misrepresentation. States with three to five representatives range betwixt 11 to 36 pct points of misrepresentation, while those with 10-twenty representatives range from 4 to 24 pct points of misrepresentation.
Figure 4: Number of Seats in Congress Compared to Level of Representation
Figure 5 below shows the level of misrepresentation in the 34 midsized states, ranked in order of the level of misrepresentation with blue and ruby-red states shown separately. This figure shows the quite big level of disproportionate representation in many states. Out of the 34, more than than one-3rd (13) accept a disparity between votes and representation of xx percentage or larger, and in all simply five states the disparity is greater than 10 pct.
Midsized ruby states have on average a considerably higher percent level of misrepresentation—in these states, while 58 percent of the votes went to Republicans, they took 76 percent of the seats—an 18 per centum point difference that translates into 34 seats. Insufficiently, in the midsized bluish states, 59 percent of votes were for Democrats, who obtained 72 percentage of seats—a 13 pct point divergence that translates into xi seats. Furthermore, cherry states brand up nine of the thirteen states with an excess of 20 points or higher misrepresentation.
Figure five: Misrepresentation in Midsized States in 2016
Annotation: Level of misrepresentation computed as the difference betwixt percent of votes and per centum of seats.
Redistricting
What is underlying this outcome? In principle, such results are possible even if most of the land is competitive, but 1 party has an border in the bulk of the districts. In practise, how districts are drawn can also affect outcomes. In fact, some states have moved to take redistricting away from elected country politicians past instituting independent redistricting commissions. The 4 big states that have independent commissions—California, New Jersey, Washington, and Arizona—have less than 10 percent misrepresentation. The ii other states with independent commissions, Idaho, and Montana, with two and one congressional representatives respectively, take greater than 30 percent misrepresentation. There is no getting around size!
Overrepresentation by number of seats per state
As to states with the almost number of "actress" seats, Democrats boss in California, with near five add-on seats. Republicans take approximately three extra seats in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Northward Carolina.
Figure half-dozen: Over-representation of Majority Political party
Note: Measured in congressional seats (compared with distribution of the votes).
Implications
The independence of the U.S. was launched by a revolt over the lack of representation. Misrepresentation can pb to social and economic policy distortions, feed distrust, and drive discontent in regime. Gerrymandering hinders party competition and the resulting political monopoly feeds extremism in the majority party. The border provided past this misrepresentation gives the majority political party asymmetric power that is specially destabilizing and dangerous in an era of heightened polarization and partisanship.
The data suggest that the near serious problem is in midsized states, a problem that could exist alleviated by the design of districts by independent bodies.
Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/02/22/misrepresentation-in-the-house/
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